Carlo Gorla –
The exit of Great Britain from the European Union, sanctioned by the outcome of the referendum last June 23rd, the so-called Brexit, sparked both in the period preceding the consultation and logically, downstream, a succession of analyses and comments concerning the possible political and economic consequences of the event. The latter regard not only the United Kingdom but also other European Countries and, more in general, the world economy.
I would not like to be in economists’ shoes, compelled to make forecasts but, due to the historical extent of the event and considering also the potential impact on the engineering field as well, I think that in my turn I duly have to deal with the topic, even if, fortunately for me, not being an economist, I do not feel obliged to propose an original analysis and I just express some food for thought about news and comments released by the various media, focusing in particular on those concerning our economy.
Given that it is not easy to make some forecasts in front of events that, potentially, might trigger hardly controllable chain reactions, first of all, according to the first hot comments, I daresay that analysts’ opinions are conflicting: even if they agree about the hypothesis that the main repercussions on our exports are expected starting from 2017 and that they will depend on the effective outcomes of the agreements signed by Great Britain and the Union, they in fact do not provide unanimous indications either on the figures or on the most struck sectors.
Someone identify the agribusiness as the field that will pay the highest bill others think that mechanical engineering and transports will be the most affected sectors. Those leaning towards the latter hypothesis support their thesis by affirming that British entrepreneurs’ drop of investments will damage the exports of capital goods and of commercial transports and vice versa indicate that sectors like the agribusiness or fashion, producing consumer goods addressing upper classes, would be less influenced. There is however also the diametrically opposite point of view, which deems the latter will be the most struck together with automotive. In any case, the negative figure stem from an otherwise positive trend, as downward correction.
The months gone by in the meantime have not provided further elements of judgement and instead, perhaps just for this reason, it seems that the matter is no longer very topical, at least if we consider the space dedicated to it.
Hoping that I will not be denied by facts, I have the neat impression that our transmissions and our gears will survive Brexit, too!